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YEAR 2000 ANALYSIS
Systemic triage
By Peter de Jager
The sad fact of the matter is that for some, it's already too late to solve the Year 2000 problem in a coherent and satisfactory manner. For whatever reason, an unreasonable number of companies have just let it go until it's become too late. The recriminations, finger pointing, and law suits will begin in a year or two. And, other than some enriching some litigators, it will be to no avail -- the damage has been done.
It's time to play the Last Post and Chorus. Some companies will not pass over into the next century because their mission critical systems will crash against the inevitable wall of 00. Consider it a lesson learnt, in the future let's design systems for what will and might happen. For now, lets concentrate on those who can survive.
"Beware of the Year 2000 compliance strategy that has you installing a new hardware platform, or software environment for the first time."
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We can minimize the damage. What percentage of organizations will fail? With some small bit of fickle luck and a large dose of careful and prudent planning, we can keep the number of fatalities to a bare minimum.
Y2K triage
In the medical profession, there is a concept of "triage". The dictionary defines it as follows: "The sorting and allocation of treatment to patients, especially battle and disaster victims, according to a system of priorities designed to maximize the number of survivors." The idea is that if there aren't enough medical resources to save everyone, you prioritize to save as many as possible (and possibly lose some who might have been saved if more time or more resources had otherwise been available). Setting these types of priorities involves making some very difficult decisions.
Some companies are going to have to perform triage on their systems. It won't be easy, it'll be resisted, and it's going to hurt. It may be the only way get through the 00 barrier with enough systems intact to print an invoice, ship a product, and pay the bills.
At it's simplest, during medical triage, you sort the casualties into three groups. First, identify those who'll survive if they get no medical treatment. Next, identify those who if they get medical treatment, have a good chance of survival. Lastly, identify those who, even if they get medical treatment, are unlikely to survive.
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