New directions
The problem is not one of having viable new directions -- new market opportunities -- that can move Notes and Domino away from the past and towards the future by capitalizing on new revenue opportunities and current trends. The challenge at IBM seems to be one of focus and strategy. The focus and strategy is not on email and messaging but on a dying collaborative applications business that IBM itself is quietly, implicitly cannibalizing for the benefit of WebSphere while practically ignoring a major infrastructure play in email and messaging.

The only plausible explanation for IBM's strategy seems to be that IBM continues to push Notes and Domino as a collaborative application platform alongside WebSphere solely to create customer "lock-in". Setting aside the question of whether investment in a highly proprietary development platform dating back to the 1980s makes sense, the fact is that once a company has deployed applications on Domino it becomes virtually impossible to migrate away because the cost of rebuilding the applications is prohibitive. Conveniently, IBM provides a suite of tools and APIs to integrate and port Domino applications to WebSphere.

In any case, the seemingly pervasive belief at IBM, and even among business partners, that Notes and Domino cannot compete directly with Exchange on email and messaging, that it is only a viable product because it is "more than email", is plainly wrong.

Today, there are dozens of growing companies and startups focusing on email and messaging related technologies. The email and messaging space is alive and well. Obviously, IBM could easily add new email and messaging features to Notes and Domino to generate new revenue and to take on Exchange directly, but not if IBM fails to pursue it.

It is ironic that the significance of such a strategy (focus on email and messaging) could seem to escape IBM today since that is the very strategy that Microsoft used to take away cc:Mail customers from Lotus 10 years ago. Now, the tables are turned. The Microsoft story is complex, expensive and convoluted with many hidden costs -- the same criticism that Microsoft leveled against Lotus in the past -- but it is now IBM that can capitalize by maintaining a sharp focus on email and messaging to cut through the thick underbrush of Microsoft products.

What's it all mean?
In conclusion, IBM is the only party ultimately responsible for ongoing rumors and speculation over the future of Notes and Domino, as well as for the perceived internal competition between Domino and WebSphere, which is clearly a real issue when it comes to intranets.

Domino can't be and will never be IBM's intranet or Internet platform. The confusion, and the erosion of the Lotus customer base, is the result of IBM's failure to face that reality and to address it directly with customers and partners. Instead, they strive to maintain the ephemeral illusion that Notes and Domino are business as usual; an illusion that no one finds credible and that ultimately benefits only Microsoft.